The leaky launch
A dashboard for a fictional venture. Where is it stuck? Read the numbers and the notes, pick the stage it's really stuck at, then see our read and why.
Fictional Every name and number here is made up for the puzzle.
The venture
An AI bookkeeping assistant for freelancers: it reads receipts and bank feeds and keeps the books ready for tax time.
What the founders thinkSign-ups are growing every month. More marketing will grow them faster.
New sign-ups, per month
1,310 from 420
Still active 30 days after signing up
19% from 41%
Paying users
41 from 22
Marketing spend, as a multiple of month 1
2x from 1x
Also on the desk
- Most returning users come back within an hour of a reminder email.
- Asked what they would use if it disappeared, most users named a spreadsheet.
- The plan for next quarter: double the marketing budget again.
Stuck at PMF.
People sign up and try it. They don't come back on their own.
What the dashboard shows
- Each month's new users stay less than the month before: from 41% still active after 30 days down to 19%.
- Most returns follow a reminder email. On the PMF Signal Ladder, a prompted return measures the reminder, not the product: the Return rung isn't reached.
- The Rely rung fails too. If the product disappeared, most users would go back to a spreadsheet.
Why not Market?
It looks like a Market problem, or even Grow, because sign-ups climb every month. But sign-ups climb with the marketing spend while each new group stays less. More marketing fills a leaking bucket faster, and every one of those users has to be paid for.
What we'd do next
Hold growth spend where it is. Find the users who come back without a reminder, and learn the moment the product earns its place for them. Fix the product for that moment, then measure returns again before buying more sign-ups.
The method: PMF Signal Ladder and Graduated Launch. The stage, in the Journal: PMF stage: paying customers aren't fit.